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Researcher file
Raymond Nelson
Development of evidence-based polygraph scoring systems and statistical methods for psychophysiological detection of deception
32Studies
2006–2021Active period
12Co-authors
6Research areas
5Journals
Researcher record
NameRaymond Nelson
AffiliationLafayette Instrument Company — United States
Publications32 peer-reviewed studies in this database
Active period2006–2021
Research focusDevelopment of evidence-based polygraph scoring systems and statistical methods for psychophysiological detection of deception
About Raymond Nelson
Raymond Nelson is a polygraph examiner, psychotherapist, and research specialist with Lafayette Instrument Company, a past president of the American Polygraph Association (APA) and currently serves as an elected member of the APA Board of Directors. Mr. Nelson is also the academic director of the International Polygraph Training Center (IPTC). He is a polygraph field examiner and psychotherapist with expertise in sexual offending, victimization, trauma and development in addition to experience in testing, data analytics and statistics.
Nelson has made foundational contributions to polygraph test data analysis, most notably as one of the developers of the Objective Scoring System version 3 (OSS-3) scoring algorithm and the Empirical Scoring System (ESS). The ESS is an evidence-based, standardized method for test data analysis with comparison question test (CQT) formats, first described in publication in 2008, and has become one of the most widely used methods for polygraph test data analysis throughout the U.S. and other countries. His 2017 work introduced multinomial reference distributions for CQT scores—the first published theoretical reference distribution for such data, culminating in the ESS-M (Empirical Scoring System – Multinomial), an important update made first available in 2017. Nelson's research spans meta-analytic reviews, Monte Carlo validity studies, Bayesian credibility assessment, and the scientific basis for polygraph testing.
Nelson teaches and lectures frequently throughout the United States and internationally, and has published numerous studies and papers on all aspects of polygraph testing, including the psychological and physiological basis, test data analysis, faking/countermeasures, interviewing and question formation. He is a past president and currently elected member of the APA Board of Directors, and has helped with policy development at the state, local and national level. Mr. Nelson serves as an expert witness in legal matters involving both polygraph and psychology/psychotherapy. His collaborative network includes frequent co-authorship with Mark Handler, Donald Krapohl, Charles Robert Honts, David Raskin, and other leading figures in the field.
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Researchers who have co-authored studies with Raymond Nelson.
Publications [32]
All peer-reviewed studies by Raymond Nelson in our database.
[001]
2021 Polygraph & Forensic Credibility Assessment
Literature Review and Analysis of the Multi-facet Hypothesis and the Evaluation of Independent Target Questions
Grand total scoring achieved 89% accuracy compared to 78% for multi-facet hypothesis scoring—an 11 percentage point difference that challenges the operational utility of assuming independence among relevant questions. [002] 2020 American Polygraph Association MagazinePractical polygraph: Interviewing and screening public-safety applicants for social intolerance
Authors concluded that polygraph examiners should become conversant with social intolerance topics and provided operational definitions, mind-mapping tools, and interview strategies for addressing religious, gender, age, and racial bias in… [003] 2018 PolygraphCredibility Assessment Using Bayesian Credible Intervals: A Replication Study
Replicated earlier accuracy findings using Bayesian credible intervals and the ESS-M scoring method. Confirmed high accuracy with event-specific polygraphs using four relevant questions. Demonstrated the utility of modern statistical approaches. [004] 2018 APA MagazinePractical Polygraph: A Survey and Description of Decision Rules
Comprehensive survey of decision rules used in modern polygraph testing. Documented the evolution from subjective to objective decision criteria and their impact on reliability and accuracy. [005] 2018 Polygraph & Forensic Credibility AssessmentElectrodermal signal processing: a correlation study of auto-centered EDA and manually-centered EDA with the Criterion State of Deception and Truth-telling
Optimized auto-centered EDA filters equaled or exceeded the criterion correlation of manually-centered EDA, with a coefficient of determination (r²) of 0.49. Automatic processing retained approximately 90% of diagnostic data while… [006] 2017 Polygraph & Forensic Credibility AssessmentUpdated numerical distributions for the Empirical Scoring System: An accuracy demonstration with archival datasets with and without the Vasomotor Sensor
The updated ESS-M maintained diagnostic accuracy equal to or exceeding the original ESS while successfully incorporating vasomotor sensor data that was previously excluded from scoring algorithms. [007] 2017 APA MagazinePractical Polygraph: FAQ on Electrodermal Activity and the Electrodermal Sensor
Electrodermal activity demonstrates stronger correlation with ground truth compared to other polygraph channels in comparison question testing. The article clarifies technical terminology, electrical measurement principles, and physiological mechanisms underlying skin… [008] 2017 Polygraph & Forensic Credibility AssessmentMultinomial reference distributions for the Empirical Scoring System
The study successfully produced theoretical multinomial reference distributions that showed virtually perfect concordance with Monte Carlo simulations, enabling Bayesian classification that reduced inconclusive results by an average of 72% when… [009] 2016 APA MagazineScientific (Analytic) Theory of Polygraph Testing
The analytic theory provides a unified framework explaining polygraph responses through differential physiological loading rather than specific emotional states, offering a scientifically defensible basis that supports evidence-based protocols and accommodates… [010] 2016 • ESS EXTENDED ANALYSIS PolygraphExtended Analysis with ESS and OSS-3 on USAF-MGQT Examination Data
Applied ESS and OSS-3 to USAF examination data. Found ESS component weighting achieved superior diagnostic extraction compared to simpler three-position scoring models. [011] 2015 Polygraph2015 Update to the APA 2011 Meta-Analytic Survey of Validated Polygraph Techniques
Updated the 2011 APA meta-analysis with new studies and data. Confirmed mean accuracy of .89 for event-specific diagnostic polygraphs (95% CI: .83–.95) and .85 for multi-issue screening (95% CI: .77–.93).… [012] 2015 • META-ANALYTIC UPDATE PolygraphUpdated Meta-Analytic Survey of Validated Polygraph Techniques
Extension of the 2011 APA meta-analytic survey with additional validated techniques. Confirmed mean accuracy rates of approximately 89% for event-specific tests and documented ESS/OSS scoring system performance across validated formats. [013] 2015 Various PublicationsMonte Carlo Estimates of the Validity of Polygraph Testing
Used Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate polygraph validity across different conditions. Statistical modeling confirmed high accuracy estimates consistent with empirical findings from field and laboratory research. [014] 2015 PolygraphScientific basis for polygraph testing
The review demonstrates that modern polygraph practice is based on sophisticated models involving differential salience and signal detection theory rather than older fear-based explanations, establishing it as a probabilistic test… [015] 2013 PolygraphInformation gain of the directed lie screening test
DLST/ESS provided meaningful information gain (>5%) across nearly all plausible base rates, substantially exceeding the performance of unassisted professional veracity assessment in both security screening and criminal justice contexts. [016] 2012 • MONTE CARLO PolygraphMonte Carlo Study of Criterion Validity for Two-Question Zone Comparison Tests with the ESS
Used Monte Carlo simulation methods to establish statistical confidence intervals for ESS scoring across various test formats and decision rules. Provided robust normative data. [017] 2011 • CROSS-CULTURAL ESS PolygraphEmpirical Scoring System: A Cross-Cultural Replication and Extension Study
International validation with 19 trainees scoring 100 confirmed cases. Achieved mean accuracy of 90.1% (95% CI: 83.8–95.8%), demonstrating ESS validity across cultures. [018] 2011 PolygraphCriterion Validity of the Empirical Scoring System with experienced examiners: Comparison with the seven-position evidentiary model Using the Federal Zone Comparison Technique
No statistically significant differences were found between the ESS and seven-position evidentiary model across 13 dimensions of criterion accuracy when scored by experienced examiners. More than 50 percent of subtotal… [019] 2010Empirical Scoring System: NPC Quick Reference
Inexperienced examiners using ESS achieved mean accuracy of 90.1% (95% CI = 83.8% to 95.8%) with only 3.3% inconclusives, and demonstrated 85% inter-rater agreement, indicating that systematic scoring methodology enables… [020] 2009 PolygraphFocused polygraph technique for PCSOT and law enforcement screening programs
The paper proposes a standardized DLST format with two neutral questions, one sacrifice relevant question, two separate relevant questions, and two directed-lie comparison questions, with standardized pretest procedures and question… [021] 2009 • ESS REPLICATION PolygraphA Replication and Validation Study on an Empirically Based Manual Scoring System
Replicated ESS validation with independent sample of confirmed cases. Results consistent with original validation studies, supporting reliability of the scoring method. [022] 2009 PolygraphAn exploration of emotion and cognition during polygraph testing
Polygraph testing activates a complex array of emotions mediated by both subconscious and conscious cognitive appraisal processes, with specific emotions triggered by how examinees appraise the situation. However, current PDD… [023] 2009A respiration primer for polygraph examiners
Four validated respiratory features with replicated scientific support for diagnostic value were identified: suppression, apnea, slowing, and baseline rise. Apnea (breathing cessation) is considered the ultimate manifestation of respiratory suppression… [024] 2008 PolygraphNelson, Krapohl and Handler 2008
[025] 2008 PolygraphBrute-force comparison: A Monte Carlo study of the Objective Scoring System version 3 (OSS-3) and human polygraph scorers
OSS-3 exceeded the decision accuracy of 10 human scorers and 9 out of 10 individual scorers across six accuracy dimensions. The algorithm demonstrated perfect reliability compared to human interrater reliability… [026] 2008 PolygraphDevelopment and validation of the Objective Scoring System version 3
OSS-3 achieved 88% average decision accuracy with balanced sensitivity and specificity, with computer algorithms providing perfect interrater reliability compared to human scorers (κ = .58–.61) and reduced inconclusive results. [027] 2008 PolygraphA focused polygraph technique for PCSOT and law enforcement screening programs
The authors argue that the DLST, derived from validated TES research (98% accuracy for innocent and 83.3% for guilty examinees in laboratory studies), can serve as an effective initial screening… [028] 2008 • OSS-3 DEVELOPMENT PolygraphObjective Scoring System, Version 3 (OSS-3): Development and Validation
Described the OSS-3 algorithm and used brute-force methods to compare accuracy against previous versions and human examiners. OSS-3 demonstrated balanced sensitivity/specificity and outperformed 10 human scorers. [029] 2008 • ESS DEVELOPMENT PolygraphAn Empirically Based Normative System for Test Data Analysis
Introduced the Empirical Scoring System based on normative physiological data. Provided validation across 732 confirmed examinations scored by 140 examiners in 16 cohorts. [030] 2007 PolygraphPolygraph terms for the 21st century
The central recommendation is to replace 'psychological set' with 'salience,' a term more widely recognized in scientific literature. Additional key proposals include using 'electrodermal activity' instead of 'GSR,' 'comparison questions'… [031] 2007 – 2011 PolygraphDevelopment of the Objective Scoring System (OSS) and Empirical Scoring System (ESS)
Developed and validated the OSS and ESS computerized scoring methods, resulting in more objective and stable analysis of psychophysiological outcomes. These systems replaced subjective hand-scoring and significantly improved inter-scorer reliability… [032] 2006 PolygraphEDA Primer for Polygraph Examiners
Electrodermal response is the most robust and informative signal in polygraph testing, driven exclusively by sympathetic nervous system activity and providing the greatest contribution to diagnostic accuracy in comparison question…Explore all research.
Browse our complete database of 3493 peer-reviewed polygraph studies.